Don’t buy beer in a metal mug.

Don't Buy Beer in a Metal Mug

Over dinner last night, my wife (who's an experienced retail investor) was explaining how she thinks about stock valuation. She picked up this analogy from JL Collins: "It's like a beer," she said, pointing at my glass. "The foam on top? That's the hype. The actual beer? That's the real value."

Simple. Brilliant. And it got me thinking.

Think about your company's total AI spend as that full beer glass. The foam at the top? That's the pilot projects that never scaled. The unused seat licenses. The "cool factor" initiatives looked great in the board deck but delivered no measurable impact.

The beer itself? That's different. That's the production workflows that actually run. The measurable efficiency gains. The data assets that compound in value over time. The real ROI that shows up in your P&L.

Here's what 20 years of leading digital transformation taught me: Our job as technology leaders isn't to avoid the foam entirely, some experimentation is necessary. Our job is to maximize the beer part.

But here's the problem: For too many companies, AI investment is like drinking from a metal mug. You can't see through it. You have no idea how much is foam and how much is beer until it's too late.

Great AI leadership? That's about turning that opaque metal mug into a clear glass.

Warren Buffett’s greatness lies in his ability to pay mostly for beer, with very little foam. That's exactly what we need to do with AI investment: turn Opacity into Visibility.

The companies that win the AI race will be the ones who get the most beer in their glass and can prove it.